Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
